The U.S. Department of Agriculture in its July 11 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates projected 2013-14 global ending stocks of wheat at 172.38 million tonnes, down 8.87 million tonnes, or 5%, from the June projection, and down 2.09 million tonnes, or 1%, from 174.47 million tonnes estimated for 2012-13.
Latest information continues to point to a significant 7.2 percent increase in 2013 world cereal production to 2 479 million tonnes, a new record. FAO now puts world wheat output in 2013 at 704 million tonnes, an increase of 6.8 percent, which would imply more than full recovery from the previous year’s reduction and bring world production to its highest level in history. By far, the bulk of the increase this year is expected to originate in Europe, as prospects remain favourable overall in the EU and outputs in the major producing CIS countries are forecast to rebound sharply from drought-reduced levels in 2012. The outlook is also positive in Canada, Australia and Argentina – other major exporters – and in most other wheat producing and consuming countries. The main exception is the United States, where wheat crop growth has been hindered by adverse weather conditions – drought in particular – this season.
The Cereal Supply and Demand Brief provides an up-to-date perspective of the world cereal market. The monthly brief is supplemented by a detailed assessment of cereal production as well as supply and demand conditions by country/region in the quarterly Crop Prospects and Food Situation. More in-depth analyses of world markets for cereals, as well as other major food commodities, are published biannually in Food Outlook.
Strong growth is expected for global wheat, coarse grains and rice production in 2013, according to early forecasts published in the May issue of FAO’s monthly Cereals Supply and Demand Brief.
FAO’s latest forecast for world cereal production in 2012 has been revised upward by 4 million tonnes since the February figure to 2 306 million tonnes (including rice in milled terms), but still about 2 percent down from the previous year’s record. The latest revision largely reflects upward adjustments for rice as the 2012 secondary crop harvests in some countries are still ongoing or have just been completed.
Larger wheat production, less consumption and growing stocks were forecast by the International Grains Council in its Jan. 21 Grain Market Report. World wheat ending stocks in 2010 were forecast at 197 million tonnes by the I.G.C., up 6 million tonnes from the Nov. 26 report and up 19% from 165 million in 2009. The carryover would represent a remarkable… Read more »