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IGC lifts world wheat production forecast

January 21st, 2017
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The International Grains Council (IGC) on Jan. 19 raised its forecast for world wheat production in 2016-17 to 752 million tonnes, up from its late November forecast of 749 million tonnes and compared with the record outturn of 736 million tonnes in 2015-16.

The IGC forecast 2016-17 world wheat ending stocks at a record 235 million tonnes, unchanged from the previous projection issued in November and up 14 million tonnes from 221 million tonnes in 2015-16.

The IGC also raised its projection for total grains production to 2.094 billion tonnes, up from 2.084 billion tonnes in November, and up from 2.005 billion in 2015-16.

Total consumption was raised to 2.062 billion tonnes from 2.056 billion tonnes.

“Apart from barley, solid growth is expected for most grains, but with a particularly sharp increase in maize output,” the IGC noted in its report. “Led by strong gains in use for feed, but with food and industrial demand also rising, grains consumption is expected to exceed 2 billion tonnes for only the second time. However, a comparatively steeper increase in supplies will lead to a fourth successive year of stock building, including records for wheat and maize. Trade is seen declining slightly, mainly on the reduced need for imported feed supplies in China.”

The IGC forecast 2016-17 maize production at 1.045 billion tonnes, up from 1.042 billion tonnes in November and compared with 971 million tonnes in 2015-16. The consumption projection was raised to 1.028 billion tonnes from 1.026 billion tonnes in November.

Decreases in the United States and Argentina only partly offset by increases in other regions led the IGC to project a decrease in 2016-17 world soybean production, to 334 million tonnes, from 336 million in November. The consumption projection, meanwhile, was raised to 333 million tonnes from 332 million. The IGC said global trade is expected to hold at 137 million tonnes.

The 2016-17 world outturn for rice is expected to total 482 million tonnes, down from 485 million in November. The IGC said the decrease reflects diminished prospects in South Asia, notably in Sri Lanka.

The IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI) rose by nearly 4% to its highest level in five months, the IGC said.

“Market direction was shaped by multiple factors, with particular underpinning to wheat, maize and soybeans stemming from some weather-related crop worries in key exporters,” the IGC said. “Robust international demand provided additional support at times, especially to rowcrops, while technical features, activity by funds and currency movements were sometimes influential.”

Source: World Grain

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Producing wheat will be profitable — for some

September 24th, 2016
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Cash wheat prices (near $2.80 at this writing) are well below the cost of production. It is a fact that the market will offer prices that provide a profit for some producers. It is also a fact that the market will periodically offer prices that will weed out inefficient, high-cost producers.

Another fact is that a large difference exists in the cost of production between the most profitable and the least profitable farms. Low prices and negative returns reinforce the necessity for producers to calculate both their cost of production and where they fit in the hierarchy of profitable farms.

Kansas Farm Management Association records from 247 wheat farms were used to calculate the cost for producing non-irrigated wheat. The farms were divided into three groups: top, middle, and bottom third by net return to management per acre.

For the crop years 2011 through 2015, the average variable cost per bushel (including a land charge) for the top third was $5.12 per bushel; for the middle third it was $6.31 per bushel; and for the bottom third it was $9.11 per bushel. Subtracting the land charge resulted in $4.66, $5.78 and $8.49 for top, middle, and bottom thirds, respectively.

YIELD AVERAGES

The 5-year average yields per acre were 47 bushels for the top, 41 bushels for the middle, and 33 bushels for the bottom thirds.

The difference in the per bushel cost between the average of the top third and the bottom third is $3.83 (without land) and $3.99 (with land). The difference between the top third and the middle third is $1.12 (without land) and $1.19 (with land). Note that these are averages of the three groups. Fifty percent of the farms in the middle group had per bushel costs more than $1.12 ($1.19 with land) higher than the average of the top third’s cost per bushel.

For 50 percent of the farms to receive a positive return above variable costs, the average price of wheat would needed to have been $5.78 (no land charge) or $6.31 (with land charge).

The records also showed that the cost areas that indicated the greatest difference between groups were fertilizer, herbicide/insecticide, and machinery, in that order. Producers may find it worth their effort to calculate and review the individual cost areas and determine where management practices could be used to replace inputs and reduce costs.

RETURNS TO GROWERS

When the average cost per bushel is subtracted from the average Kansas price for June and July, the top third’s 5-year average return per bushel was $1.48. For the top third, the net returns were $2.53 (2011), $2.76 (2012), $2.35 (2012), minus 53 cents (2014), and  minus 42 cents (2015).

For the middle third, the five-year average was 29 cents per bushel; $1.16 (2011), $1.42 (2012), $1.25 (2013), minus $1.38 (2014), and minus 99 cents (2015). Over the 5-year period, the bottom third had a negative net return every year and an average of a minus $2.51 per bushel.

The Kansas wheat production costs and yields may be different from Oklahoma and Texas costs. But the bottom line results would be about the same. The fact is that about 40 percent of the wheat farms have a negative return over the 5-year period between 2011 and 2015.

The market will provide a profit for wheat production. That profit may only be for the top 60 percent. Now is the time to figure out which group your farm is in and/or how to get the farm in the top third and how to keep it there.

Source:  southwestfarmpress.com

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Rabobank: The future of E.U. wheat

August 15th, 2016
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Future growth of E.U. wheat production will depend heavily on export opportunities in the global market — particularly in Africa, the Middle East and Southeast Asia, according to a new report from Rabobank. E.U.-28 wheat production has increased by roughly 25%, or 31 million tonnes, in the past 15 years, driven almost exclusively by yield growth, according to Rabobank’s latest report “The Future of E.U. Wheat: A Look into the Crystal Ball… and at the Bigger Picture.”

In addition to the two major wheat-producing countries (France and Germany), the Baltic countries of Latvia and Lithuania, as well as the Black Sea countries of Romania and Bulgaria have increased their wheat output significantly. In the future, these countries should continue to expand their wheat production, resulting in higher E.U. wheat production, according to Rabobank.

Since 2000, nearly one-third of the additionally harvested quantity was consumed in the E.U., particularly in the industrial sector, the report said. The remainder — around 18 million tonnes — has found its way to the global market. Rabobank said E.U. wheat consumption should grow only marginally in the future, with the additional E.U. production mostly flowing into the export market.

Rabobank said the majority of the increasing E.U. exports have gone to Africa and the Middle East, but also that Southeast Asia may be a promising market for E.U. wheat. Fifty-seven percent of E.U. wheat exports found their way to Africa. In 2002, around 5 million tonnes of E.U. wheat — almost half of all E.U. exports — went to North Africa, while by 2015, those exports reached 11.5 million tonnes, accounting for 37% of all E.U. exports, Rabobank said. E.U. wheat trade to Sub-Saharan Africa tripled during the same period, to 6 million tonnes annually, and is now reaching an E.U. export share of 20%.

In the future, Rabobank expects imports of wheat to Sub-Saharan Africa to grow faster than those to North Africa, driven in large part by population and higher income. Within the next decade, the southern part of Africa will import more wheat than the north, Rabobank said, but North Africa is expected to remain the main destination for E.U. wheat. The import growth rates in West Africa and East Africa will be significantly higher, though, Rabobank noted in the report. The climatic conditions in East Africa do not allow for wheat farming, and almost the entire demand must therefore be covered by imports, mainly from the U.S. and the E.U., according to Rabobank. In contrast, West Africa is producing wheat. Consumption in West Africa is increasing much faster than production, and imports from many origins — including the E.U., the U.S., Russia, Australia, Ukraine and Argentina — are growing.

Approximately 20% to 25% of E.U. wheat exports are going to the Middle East, with Saudi Arabia and Iran being the main destinations, according to the report. E.U. wheat imports account for about two-thirds of Saudi Arabia’s 3.5 million tonne import total and about 50% of Iran’s very volatile 1 million to 6.5 million tonnes. The future demand for imports in Iran heavily depends on the population growth and the local wheat production, Rabobank said, noting that the country usually is able to cover 80% of its demand with its local production of about 15 million tonnes. The main competitors for E.U. wheat flows into Iran will continue to be Russia and Kazakhstan. After lifting the sanctions against Iraq, not only the E.U., but also other regions are hoping to expand their exports, according to the report.

Whether noteworthy U.S. wheat exports to Iran also will occur remains to be seen, as the last significant U.S. volumes were traded there in the 1970s. In Saudi Arabia, the strong increase of wheat imports in the last decade was accompanied by a drastic reduction in domestic production, Rabobank said. During that time, the Saudi Arabian wheat output shrank from about 2.5 million tonnes to virtually nothing. The future increase in imports likely will be substantially slower, as it primarily will be driven by the 2% growth of the 32 million population, with the E.U. competing with Canada, Australia and other export nations to accommodate Saudi Arabia’s demand, the report said.

According to the report, annual growth of wheat demand into Southeast Asia of just under 5% per year will result in an increase of the annual imports by 5 million tonnes, to about 25 million tonnes in 2020. However, Australia, the U.S. and, increasingly, Ukraine will supply large shares of this demand, with the E.U. also expanding its exports to the region, Rabobank said

The future growth of E.U. wheat production will heavily depend on export opportunities in the global market, particularly in Africa, the Middle East and Southeast Asia. The projected demand increases in these regions is strong; however, other export nations also are aligning their wheat trade toward these destination markets, the report said.

Source: World Grain

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Scientist Awarded for Boosting Wheat Production by 200 Million Tonnes in 25 Years

October 24th, 2014
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wheat-fieldA Mexican scientist of Indian origin has won the World Food Prize 2014 for his work that led to an increase in world wheat production of almost 200 million tonnes in 25 years.

Sanjaya Rajaram has been hailed by Norman Borlaug as “the greatest present day wheat scientist in the world”.

His agricultural research on wheat saw the creation of disease and stress-resistant strains of wheat suitable to be grown in diverse world climates, reports PTI.

“It is a collective achievement, rather than that of a single person,” Rajaram told the audience accepting the prestigious award at the Iowa State University, Des Moines, in the US state of Iowa.

The award “honours the innovative spirit of farmers”, he said, adding that “without their contributions, my research wouldn’t have been possible”.

Born in a small village in India, Rajaram, who is now a citizen of Mexico, worked with International Maize and Wheat Improvement Centre (CIMMYT) where he built on the successes of the Green Revolution to boost wheat production.

Under Rajaram’s leadership, the centre developed 480 wheat varieties released in 51 countries and were widely adopted by small and large-scale farmers alike.

Rajaram has acknowledged his support for genetically modified crops, while urging caution.
“What are the effects on the environment? We need to study those things very carefully,” Rajaram said.

Source: International Business Times

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Flour exports forecast to rise

August 8th, 2014
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flour_in_a_bowlGlobal flour exports in the 2014-15 crop season have the potential of rising 6% over the previous year, according to the initial forecast for the new season issued by the International Grains Council (IGC). While up from the prior year, the prospective trade will fall 10% short of the all-time record set in 2011-12.

The IGC projected world flour exports in 2014-15 at 13,150,000 tonnes of wheat equivalent, compared with 12,380,000 shipped in the season drawing to a close this month. The export peak was 14,560,000 tonnes in 2011-12. Flour exports in the 21st century did not exceed 10 million tonnes until 2004-05. This figure also was surpassed in several years of the last decade of the 20th century.

In estimating export flour trade, the IGC does not include shipments of durum semolina. That trade for 2014-15 was 360,000 tonnes, against 350,000 in the prior year. Adding that to the export total makes an aggregate for 2014-15 of 13,510,000 tonnes, against 12,739,000 in 2013-14 and a peak slightly below 15 million in 2011-12.

In forecasting a 770,000-tonne increase in world flour trade, the IGC said the gain was “driven by higher needs in Syria, the return of Indonesia to the market following the softening of import restrictions and the re-emergence of Argentina’s supplies in South America.”

So far as flour exporters are concerned, the IGC compiles data for 16 countries, of which only one, Canada, is expected to post a reduction in 2014-15 from the prior year. The other 15 exporting countries were forecast to show gains or hold unchanged.

Notable among the top exporters were the back and forth between Kazakhstan and Turkey as the world’s leading flour exporter. For 2014-15, Kazakhstan returned to the No. 1 position with expected shipments of 3.2 million tonnes, against 3 million in the previous year and its peak of 3,652,000 in 2011-12.

Turkey moved to second place in 2014-15 projections, placed at 2.9 million tonnes, compared with its leading 3.2 million shipped in 2013-14. In the record year of 2011-12, Turkey shipped 3,013,000 tonnes of flour in wheat equivalent.

In commenting on Turkey’s shipments, the IGC said its mills were benefiting from strong demand by both Syria and Indonesia. Due to a reduced wheat crop in Turkey this year, the Council said that part of its flour export business will be filled by grinding imported wheat, known as “secondary processed trade.”

Such secondary trade also will be important for Sri Lanka, which was forecast to ship 200,000 tonnes, against 120,000 in the prior year. Growing demand from Indonesia has boosted Sri Lanka’s flour exporting.

One of the sharpest increases in flour exports was registered by Pakistan, with its outgo in 2014-15 projected at 400,000 tonnes, against 300,000 in the preceding year. The IGC noted that increased demand in world markets diverted Kazakhstan supplies from the Afghan market, “providing increased opportunities for Pakistan traders.”

The only other exporter of more than 1 million tonnes was the European Union, at 1.1 million tonnes, unchanged from the preceding year. Argentina followed in the new year, at 900,000, compared with 200,000 in 2013-14, when exports were barred as the result of a short wheat crop. Argentina as recently as 2011-12 shipped 1,239,000 tonnes.

After many years of showing exports by the United Arab Emirates (UAE) at 1 million tonnes and higher, the IGC placed its exports in 2014-15 at 600,000 tonnes, against a reduced 550,000 in the previous year. The revised flour export figures for the UAE resulted in a downward revision of world flour exports in the two prior seasons. It attributed the decrease to reduced UAE shipments to “unreported/unspecified destinations.”

Pakistan’s exports of 400,000 tonnes were identical to shipments by both China and the United States. The Canadian decrease was to 200,000 tonnes, against 245,000 in 2013-14.

Afghanistan top importer

The three leading import destinations uniquely lined up — Afghanistan in the lead at 1.5 million, followed by Uzbekistan at 1.4 million, and Iraq at 1.3 million. These totals were nearly unchanged from the prior crop year. The IGC said their takings were spurred by rising consumption and abundant wheat supplies in their flour sources.

One of the most dramatic increases in flour imports expected in the new season is Indonesia’s imports of 800,000 tonnes, against only 300,000 in 2013-14. The increase reflected the government’s action in May of introducing a flour import quota of 441,141 tonnes for the period ended in December, assigned as 251,450 to Turkey, 136,754 to Sri Lanka and 22,057 for Ukraine, with the balance to come from optional origins. Outside the quota, a duty of 5% will be imposed, which is a steep reduction from the previous 20% duty on flour imports.

Syria’s imports were forecast for 2014-15 at 700,000 tonnes, up from 500,000 in the preceding year. Brazil’s likely imports were also forecast at 700,000, against 300,000 in 2013-14 and the recent peak of 903,000 in 2011-12.

“Brazil’s imports,” the IGC said, “are likely to return closer to the levels seen in recent years, but final demand will depend on the quality of the domestic harvest and the volume of licenses granted by Argentina.”

On a continental basis, Far East Asia maintained its lead in flour importing, with a total of 3.6 million tonnes of wheat equivalent, compared with 3,210,000 in 2013-14. Africa accounted for imports of 2.4 million tonnes, Near East Asia for 2.3 million, Commonwealth of Independent States, 2,350,000, and South America, 1,040,000.

IGC: Record industrial use of grain projected in 2014-15

Industrial use of grain — for making fuel, starch and beer — was seen by the International Grains Council (IGC) as rising 2% in 2014-15 and setting a new record. The total of grains the IGC determined will be processed industrially in the new season was 318.3 million tonnes, compared with 313.2 million in 2013-14 and 296 million in 2012-13.

Maize, or corn, will continue to account for most of the industrial grain use, estimated at 258.4 million tonnes in 2014-15, against 255.2 million in the preceding year. The barley forecast for 2014-15 was 30.3 million tonnes, against 30 million in 2013-14. Global industrial use of wheat in the new season was projected at 19.3 million tonnes, against 18.6 million in the preceding year.

Slightly more than half of the worldwide industrial use of grain occurred in the United States, where the total was 164.4 million tonnes, up a little from 164 million in the previous year and compared with 153.9 million in 2012-13.

The European Union, in total, was forecast to use 35.4 million tonnes of grain for industrial purposes, up 1 million from 2013-14. Canada was projected to process 6.3 million tonnes, the same as in the prior season.

In commenting on the demand outlook, the IGC said, “Large global grain supplies should keep raw material costs attractive in the year ahead, especially for maize-based starch and ethanol production, while strengthening economic growth will help to bolster demand for industrial products.”

The Council said that most of the demand growth in the new crop year will be linked to rising consumption of starch-based products. It explained that starch is used as an ingredient in many processed foods as well as in non-food applications. The latter include adhesives, paper and textile manufacturing, construction and pharmaceuticals.

For 2014-15, the IGC forecast world grain use for making starch at 111 million tonnes, up 3% from 108.2 million in the previous season.

Global use of grains to make ethanol, as well as biofuels, will account for processing of 168.8 million tonnes, against 167.4 million in 2013-14 and 156.1 million in 2012-13.

While the United States continues far in the lead as a manufacturer of ethanol, its output “is now close to the maximum level for the most common E10 blend,” the IGC said. As a result, gains are occurring in countries like Argentina, Brazil and the E.U.

World use of grains for brewing in 2014-15 was forecast at 37.5 million tonnes, against 36.7 million in 2013-14 and 35.6 million in 2012-13.

“Reduced raw material costs have been beneficial for the global brewing sector, especially for beer producers,” the IGC noted. It added that beer demand was showing robust growth in South America and in a number of countries in Pacific Asia.

Source: World Grains

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U.S. wheat production down 6% from 2013

July 12th, 2014
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wheat productionU.S. 2014 all wheat production was forecast at 1,992 million bus, down 138 million bus, or 6%, from 2,130 million bus in 2013, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said in its July 11 Crop Production report.

The U.S.D.A. forecast production of winter wheat at 1,367 million bus, down 1% from its June forecast of 1,381 million bus and down 11% from 1,534 million bus in 2013.

Production of spring wheat other than durum in 2014 was forecast at 565 million bus, up 31 million bus, or 6%, from 534 million bus in 2013.

Durum production in 2014 was forecast at 59.6 million bus, down 2 million bus, or 4%, from 61.9 million bus in 2013.

It was the U.S.D.A.’s first survey-based estimates for other spring wheat, durum and all wheat for the current year.

The U.S.D.A. all wheat number was above the average trade expectation of 1,972 million bus, the winter wheat number was below the trade average of 1,384 million bus, the other spring wheat number was above the trade average of 544 million bus, and the durum number was slightly above the trade average of 59 million bus.

The U.S.D.A. forecast winter wheat yield at 42.2 bus per acre based on conditions as of July 1, down 0.2 bus from 42.4 bus in June and down 5.2 bus from 47.2 bus in 2013. Harvested area was forecast at 32.4 million acres, unchanged from the June Acreage report but up slightly from a year ago.

Production of hard red winter wheat was forecast at 703 million bus, down 2% from the June forecast and down 6% from 744 million bus in 2013. Soft red winter wheat production was forecast at 458 million bus, up 1% from June but down 19% from 565 million bus last year. White winter wheat was forecast at 206 million bus, up slightly from June but down 8% from 225 million bus in 2013. Soft white winter wheat production was forecast at 196 million bus, down 9% from 214 million bus in 2013. Hard white winter was forecast at 10.6 million bus, down 5% from 11.2 million bus in 2013.

The U.S.D.A. forecast spring wheat other than durum yield at 45.5 bus an acre, down 1.6 bus from 47.1 bus an acre in 2013. Harvested area was forecast at 12.4 million acres, unchanged from the June Acreage report but up 9% from 2013. Production of hard red spring wheat was forecast at 520 million bus, up 6% from 2013.

Durum yield was forecast at 42.1 bus an acre, up 1.5 bus from 43.6 bus an acre in 2013. Harvested area was forecast at 1.4 million acres, unchanged from the June Acreage report but down slightly from a year ago.

All wheat yield was forecast at 43.1 bus an acre, down 4.1 bus from 47.2 bus an acre in 2013. All wheat harvested area was forecast at 46.2 million acres, up 2% from 45.2 million acres in 2013.

Oats production in 2014 was forecast at 75.5 million bus, up 15% from 65.9 million bus in 2013 but still the fourth lowest on record if realized, the U.S.D.A. said.

U.S. 2014 barley production was forecast at 187.4 million bus, down 13% from 215.1 million bus last year.

Source: Food Busines News

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FAO Food Price Index drops for 2nd consecutive month

June 6th, 2014
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The FAO Food Price Index was down for the second consecutive month in May, continuing its retreat from the 10-month high it experienced in March. Prices fell as generally ample supplies weighed on international prices for most commodities included in the Index.

Meanwhile, a companion monthly report, the FAO Cereal Supply and Demand Brief, shows the outlook for the global cereal supply in the 2014-15 marketing season has improved considerably since the previous report in May.

The Food Price Index, based on the prices of a basket of internationally-traded food commodities, averaged 207.8 points in May 2014, down 2.5 points (or 1.2%) from April, and nearly 7 points, or 3.2%, below the May 2013 level.

The Index had risen to a 10-month high of 213 points in March, but fell in April and May amid lower dairy, cereal and vegetable oil prices. Sugar prices went against the trend, making strong gains in May, while meat remained firm.

The FAO Cereal Price Index averaged 204.4 points in May, down 2.4 points (or 1.2%) from April and 30 points (or 13%) below last year. The decline in May was mostly triggered by maize prices, which fell in response to favorable growing conditions and good supply prospects in 2014-15. Wheat prices, which had contributed to price increases in previous months, partly amid fears of disruptions to trade flows from Ukraine, also fell, while rice prices saw little change.

“We went into May with concerns over unfavorable weather conditions, especially in the U.S., and geopolitical tensions in the Black Sea region, but towards the second half of May, we began to see lower wheat prices following improved weather conditions and the continuation of regular shipping patterns from the Ukraine,” said FAO Senior Economist Abdolreza Abbassian.

FAO’s monthly update on the world cereal market, the Cereal Supply and Demand Brief, puts world cereal production in 2014 at nearly 2.48 billion tonnes (including rice in milled terms), almost 1% (21.5 million tonnes) higher than was reported in May, though still 1.4% down from 2013.

Global production of coarse grains stands at 1.274 billion tonnes, 18.6 million tonnes higher than reported in May, with most of the upward adjustment reflecting improved outlook for maize crops in the United States and bigger than earlier anticipated maize harvests in Argentina and Brazil.

World wheat production in 2014 is forecast at nearly 703 million tonnes, up marginally from the May forecast, though down from the previous year. Rice production in 2014 is expected to reach about 503 million tonnes (milled basis), 1.9 million more than foreseen last month, and 1.2% more than in 2013.

Source: World Grain

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U.S.D.A. raises 2014 wheat carryover 4 million bus

November 9th, 2013
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USDAThe U.S. Department of Agriculture on Nov. 8 forecast the U.S. carryover of wheat on June 1, 2014, at 565 million bus, up 4 million bus from the September projection but down 153 million bus, or 21%, from 718 million bus in 2013. The forecast was above the average of pre-report trade estimates at about 527 million bus.

The U.S.D.A. estimated U.S. wheat production in 2013 at 2,130 million bus, which was 16 million bus higher than the projection in the September Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates reports and 2 million bus higher than indicated in the U.S.D.A.’s Sept. 30 Small Grains 2013 Summary. The U.S.D.A. noted its spring wheat estimate was raised 2 million bus from the Small Grains Summary and its durum production estimate was raised slightly after a resurvey of North Dakota and Montana producers, who weren’t finished harvesting when the survey for the Small Grains Summary was completed.

The U.S. wheat supply in 2013-14 was forecast at 2,998 million bus, up 26 million bus from the September projection but down 4% from 3,131,000 bus in 2012-13. The higher supply forecast reflected the 16-million-bu hike in the production estimate and a higher forecast for wheat imports. The U.S.D.A. forecast 2013-14 wheat imports at a record 150 million bus, up 10 million bus from September and up 27 million bus from 2012-13.

U.S. wheat disappearance in 2013-14 was forecast at 2,433 million bus, up 22 million bus from the September projection and up 19 million bus from 2012-13. Domestic use of wheat was forecast at 1,333 million bus, up 22 million bus from the September projection but down 73 million bus, or 5%, from 1,406 million bus in 2012-13.

Food use of wheat was forecast at 950 million bus, down 8 million bus from the September projection but up 5 million bus from 2012-13. The U.S.D.A. said the lower food use forecast reflected the latest flour production data reported by the North American Millers Association “with hard red winter wheat food use reduced.”

Seed use of wheat in 2013-14 was forecast at 73 million bus, unchanged from September and from 2012-13.

The U.S.D.A. forecast feed and residual use of wheat in 2013-14 at 310 million bus, up 30 million bus from the September projection but down 78 million bus, or 20%, from 388 million bus in 2012-13. The U.S.D.A. said the upward adjustment in the feed and residual use forecast was based on indicated June-August wheat disappearance as reported in the Sept. 1, 2013, Grain Stocks report.

U.S. wheat exports in 2013-14 were forecast at 1,100 million bus, unchanged from the September projection but up 93 million bus from 1,007 million bus in 2012-13.

The U.S.D.A. forecast the average farm price of wheat in 2013-14 at $6.70@7.30 a bu, which compared with a range of $6.50@7.50 projected in September and with $7.77 a bu in 2012-13 and $7.24 a bu in 2011-12.

U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2014, was projected at 1,887 million bus, up 32 million bus from the September forecast and up 1,063 million bus, or 129%, from 824 million bus in 2012-13.

Soybean carryover on Sept. 1, 2014, was projected at 170 million bus, up 20 million bus from the September projection and up 29 million bus from 141 million bus in 2013.

Source: Food Business News

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Wheat harvest suffers from winter hangover

October 11th, 2013
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wheat productionThe quality of this year’s wheat harvest is up but the NFU believes the hangover of an “18-month winter” means quantity will be even lower than last year.

The cold and wet beginning of 2013 after months of rain meant farmers were unable to plant as much as they’d have liked in the spring.

The union has published its 2013 harvest survey results, which show that yield is up 16 per cent on 2012, at 7.8 tonnes per hectare, and slightly up on the five-year average of 7.7 tonnes per hectare.

However, total production looks set to be much lower than the 13 million tonnes produced in 2012.

The NFU’s combinable crops board chairman, Andrew Watts, said: “Farmers worked really hard to get this year’s crop up and running, but with planting down by 19 per cent, I’m not surprised overall wheat production is down. Many arable farmers are still working under the shadow of 2012’s appalling weather and the knock-on impact this has had.

“For most, the problem is now in the office working to balance the books and cover production costs. And looking ahead to next year, I’m hoping we can move on to a more positive outlook.

“It is important to remember that we have seen some very good yields coming from what wheat was left after the winter this year. If, as we are seeing, the quality is excellent, that will be some comfort for producers.

“I would hope it would mean British companies using a higher proportion of British wheat in their products, which would be good news for consumers who are looking more and more for British produce.

“Farmers know this industry is a long game. I think we are all relieved to draw a line under this season. Let’s hope we can make a good start planting this autumn and, weather willing, see a productive harvest next year.”

The union leaders have said farmers must start to produce more and called on government to deliver on its promises to improve long-neglected agricultural research and knowledge exchange to help weather-proof British crops.

“A reverse in the decline of spend for agricultural R&D is crucial if we are to increase production and impact less on the environment in years to come, particularly if extreme weather events become more frequent,” said Mr Watts.

“Innovation and technology are vital in keeping crops healthy and resilient, yet this technology has been under a sustained and unwarranted attack recently, and the impacts could be grave for the industry.

“The last thing we want is for legislators to regulate the UK and EU out of arable production by undermining access to pesticides and products that will be vital to protect the crops of the future.”

Source: World Grain

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World 2013-14 wheat ending stocks decline

July 12th, 2013
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wheat productionThe U.S. Department of Agriculture in its July 11 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates projected 2013-14 global ending stocks of wheat at 172.38 million tonnes, down 8.87 million tonnes, or 5%, from the June projection, and down 2.09 million tonnes, or 1%, from 174.47 million tonnes estimated for 2012-13.

World wheat production for 2013-14 was projected at 697.8 million tonnes, up 1.94 million tonnes from June and up 42.55 million tonnes, or 6%, from 655.25 million tonnes in 2012-13. Global wheat consumption was projected at 699.89 million tonnes, up 5.41 million tonnes from June and up 19.63 million tonnes, or 3%, from 680.26 million tonnes in 2012-13. World wheat exports were projected at 149.13 million tonnes, up 5.01 million tonnes from June and up 10.84 million tonnes, or 8%, from 138.29 million tonnes in 2012-13.

“Global wheat supplies for 2013-14 are lowered 3.5 million tonnes reflecting lower projected beginning stocks as world production rises 1.9 million tonnes,” the USDA said. “Higher 2012-13 feed use in China accounts for most of the reduction in beginning stocks with smaller increases in domestic consumption for Pakistan, Russia and Iran adding to the decline in 2012-13 global carryout.”

World corn ending stocks in 2013-14 were projected at 150.97 million tonnes, up 27.4 million tonnes, or 22%, from the 123.57 million tonnes forecast for 2012-13.

World corn production was projected at 959.84 million tonnes, up 104.79 million tonnes, or 12%, from 855.05 million tonnes in 2012-13. Global corn consumption was projected at 932.43 million tonnes in 2013-14, up 71.35 million tonnes, or 8%, from 863.91 million tonnes this year. World corn exports were projected at 103.85 million tonnes, up 13.95 million tonnes, or 16%, from 89.90 million tonne in 2012-13.

“Global corn consumption is down 2.6 million tonnes (from June) with half of the reduction in the United States,” the USDA said. “Corn consumption is also lowered for Indonesia. Global corn ending stocks for 2013-14 are projected at 151 million tonnes, down 0.9 million, with reductions for Brazil and China. World corn stocks are expected to be the highest since 2001-02.”

World soybean ending stocks for the next marketing year were projected at 74.12 million tonnes, up 12.6 million tonnes, or 16%, from 61.52 million tonnes in 2012-13.

World soybean production for 2013-14 was projected at 285.89 million tonnes, up slightly from June and up 17.87 million tonnes, or 7%, from 268.02 million tonnes in 2012-13. Global soybean consumption was projected at 270.53 million tonnes in 2013-14, up 11.68 million tonnes, or 5%, from 258.85 million tonnes this year. World soybean exports were projected at 107.21 million tonnes, up 10.81 million tonnes, or 11%, from 96.39 million tonnes in 2012-13.

Soybean production in 2013-14 was projected at a record 85 million tonnes in Brazil, unchanged from June and up 3 million tonnes from 2012-13. Global rice carryover was projected at 108.02 million tonnes in 2013-14, up 2.64 million tonnes from 105.38 million tonnes in 2012-13. World rice production was projected at a 478.69 million tonnes, up 8.84 million tonnes from 469.85 million tonnes in 2012-13. Total use was projected at 476.06 million tonnes, up 6.78 million tonnes from 469.28 million tonnes in the current year.

Source: World Grain

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